Reform 'could cost the Tories 28 seats' even though Nigel Farage U

Reform UK could cost the Conservatives up to 28 seats at the general election despite Nigel Farage dodging another bid to become an MP, an analysis has found.

The Tories were handed a huge boost in the opening stages of campaigning after Mr Farage announced he would not be standing as a Reform candidate on 4 July.

The Brexit champion, who is honorary president of Reform, revealed he would not be making a return to frontline politics but vowed to 'do my bit to help' the party.

Mr Farage's decision was seen as a huge boost to Rishi Sunak as the PM attempts to overhaul Labour's huge poll lead over the Tories over the next six weeks.

But an analysis of detailed polling data has shown the huge threat Reform still poses to the Conservatives at the general election.

Reform UK could cost the Conservatives up to 28 seats at the general election despite Nigel Farage dodging another bid to become an MP, an analysis has found

The analysis of detailed polling data has shown the huge threat Richard Tice's Reform still poses to the Conservatives at the general election

Mr Farage's decision was seen as a huge boost to Rishi Sunak as the PM, pictured in Belfast today, attempts to overhaul Labour's huge poll lead over the Tories over the next six weeks

According to the Telegraph, there are 28 seats in which the insurgent party presents a major obstacle to Tory hopes.

YouGov polling data indicates Reform is expected to win more than 20 per cent of the vote in a series of English constituencies across the North and Midlands. 

This could see the Richard Tice-led party deny the Conservatives a win by taking a large slice of the right-wing vote, or even leapfrog the Tories and come second, the newspaper reported.

In the Tory-held Boston and Skegness constituency, which is being contested by Mr Tice, one in four voters are expected to support Reform.

The Conservatives are polling at 36 per cent in the Lincolnshire constituency, followed by Labour in second on 28 per cent and Reform third on 25 per cent.

Barnsley South, Doncaster North, Bassetlaw, and Rotherham are other seats that are also high on Reform's target list. 

Reform already hold one seat in the House of Commons following the defection of former Conservative deputy chairman Lee Anderson after he lost the Tory whip.

In the Nottinghamshire constituency, Reform are polling at 23 per cent - although this would not be enough to beat Labour, who are polling at 35 per cent.

The Conservatives are fearful that Reform's decision to stand in every seat in England, Wales and Scotland will split the right-wing vote and deliver a huge boost to Labour's chances in many parts of Britain.

At the 2019 general election, the Brexit Party - the precursor to Reform - struck a deal with then-PM Boris Johnson not to stand in Tory-held seats.

Mr Farage has repeatedly claimed this was a major factor in Mr Johnson securing his 80-seat majority.

The analysis showed there are a further 375 seats where Reform could secure more than 12 per cent of the vote on 4 July.

It was based on YouGov polling produced through a constituency-level MRP study of more than 15,000 voters in late March.

Mr Farage insisted he wants to focus on backing Donald Trump 's campaign in the US, as he announced he will not be a candidate for the Commons

Mr Farage last night claimed he was preparing to launch a campaign next week to stand as an MP before Mr Sunak announced the general election date.

He told GB News: 'I have always said that there will be a moment when I throw my hat in the ring fully into British politics.

'I've also said aged 60, I've got one more card to play and it's about when I play it. I had, to be honest with you, put in place some preparations to launch next week.

'I wonder whether the Conservative Party found out about it.'

Asked to clarify that he was referring to launching a campaign to stand as an MP, he replied: 'Yes, absolutely.'

But Mr Farage admitted the PM had 'wrong-footed' him by calling an election for July 4, which was much earlier than most had expected.

He said: 'What I could not do in the space of six weeks… was to find a constituency from scratch and go around the country.'

He added he had not decided which constituency he would run in as of yet as there were 'a variety of options' which he felt he could have gone for.

Despite not running as a candidate, Mr Farage said he would campaign for Reform and stressed his support for party leader Mr Tice.

He added: 'Am I going to be campaigning? Yes. Am I backing Richard Tice? One hunderd per cent… I am utterly committed to Reform.

'I believe their agenda is the only one that can actually stop the sense of national decline that we're in.'

Mr Farage is cancelling his GB News show to free up time for campaigning.

In a statement announcing his decision not to stand at the general election, Mr Farage pointed to his focus on getting Donald Trump re-elected as US president.